Israel/Iran/US war, what could this lead to

Good morning 😃☀️🌞! Let’s get into it.

1. What’s Going On?

Due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the global oil supply is under threat, which has triggered a surge in oil prices. This isn’t just a headline; it’s coming straight to our wallets in Botswana.

2. What This Means for You

• Petrol, diesel, cooking gas, and even public transport fares may increase

• Food and product prices will rise too

• The cost of living is likely to go up over the next 1–3 months

• If Bank of Botswana raises interest rates (if they raise them, which is still a possibility)again, expect:
  

  • Higher loan repayments

  • Less access to credit

3. How to Prepare Smartly (Practical Steps)

Actionable ways you can mitigate the impact:

a. Budget Tighter Than Usual

Review and trim budgets. Cut avoidable transport, entertainment, and subscription costs.

b. Invest in Essentials

Buy bulk groceries or non-perishables before transport inflation pushes prices up.

d. Push for Remote Work (if possible)

Less commuting = less fuel spending.  

e. Avoid Large Loans Right Now

With interest rate hikes possible, it’s safer to hold off on new loans or credit, especially for vehicles or homes.

f. Explore Side Income

Suggest avenues for side hustles, digital services, or gigs that aren’t fuel-dependent.

Botswana Macro-Level Watchpoints (Optional Pro Section)

• Pula performance: If oil prices go up and inflation rises, the Pula may weaken.

• Botswana inflation rate: Track the next Bank of Botswana statement to see rate adjustments.

• Fuel subsidies or price controls: Watch if the government intervenes to ease pressure.

References

🛢️ Global Oil Supply & Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Crisis

1. Time Magazine
   “What Is the Strait of Hormuz and What Impact Could It Have on International Trade If Iran Closes It?”
   https://time.com/7296861/strait-of-hormuz-function-iran-closure-threat-impact-trade

2. The Guardian
   “Goldman Sachs warns Brent crude could hit $100 per barrel if Strait of Hormuz is disrupted”
   https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/jun/23/oil-price-imf-iran-strikes-stock-markets-business-live-news-updates

3. The Times (UK)
   “Oil ‘will surge above $100 a barrel’ if Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz”
   https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/oil-will-surge-above-100-a-barrel-if-iran-blocks-strait-of-hormuz-2rw8g06tw

🇧🇼 Botswana’s Fuel & Inflation Exposure

4. Bank of Botswana – Monetary Policy Report (2024)
   Details how imported fuel prices are a major driver of inflation in Botswana.
   https://www.bankofbotswana.bw/sites/default/files/publications/Monetary%20Policy%20Report%20-%20December%202023.pdf

5. Statistics Botswana – Consumer Price Index Reports
   Provides monthly data on inflation, fuel, and food pricing.
   https://www.statsbots.org.bw

6. Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA)
   Publishes official fuel price adjustments and explanations.
   https://www.bera.co.bw

🧮 Regional Fuel Supply Chains

7. South African Petroleum Industry Association (SAPIA)
   Details South Africa’s role as a fuel importer and re-exporter to Botswana.
   https://www.sapia.org.za