Good morning, let’s get into it!
The 2026/2027 Budget Speech, delivered by Vice President and Minister of Finance Ndaba Gaolathe, outlines a strategic "New Botswana" economic roadmap focused on fiscal discipline and wealth creation.
Here are the key points from the address:
Economic Outlook and Strategy
Four-Phase Plan: The budget is part of a broader strategy: stabilization (Phase 1), institutional reform (Phase 2), infrastructure/sectoral development (Phase 3), and achieving a high-income status (Phase 4).
Growth Projections: The economy is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026, supported by a recovery in the diamond market and growth in non-mining sectors.
Inflation Management: Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana's target range of 3% to 6% in the medium term.
Fiscal Policy and Revenue
Fiscal Consolidation: The government is committed to reducing the budget deficit, aiming for a surplus by the 2027/2028 financial year through disciplined spending.
Tax Reforms: A new Electronic Invoicing System (e-billing) will be introduced to improve VAT collection and reduce tax leakage.
Diamond Revenue: Acknowledging the volatility in the diamond market, the government is diversifying revenue streams to reduce "diamond dependency".
Key Sectoral Investments
Agriculture: Focus on achieving food security through value-chain development and supporting local farmers.
Digital Transformation: Significant funding is allocated to the "Smart Botswana" initiative to digitize government services and enhance the country's AI capabilities.
Infrastructure: Continued investment in water distribution, energy projects (including solar and coal-to-liquids), and road networks.
Education: Allocation for vocational training and aligning the education system with the "knowledge-based economy" goals.
Health: Prioritizing the procurement of essential medicines and upgrading primary healthcare facilities.
Social Safety Nets: Adjustments to old-age pensions and child welfare grants to address the rising cost of living.
In the coming weeks, I will break down more of the points, and predict stocks to look out for based on this speech
Source: Ministry of Finance and BW Government

Social Welfare and Human Capital