Good morning, let’s get into it!

As of mid-May 2026, the official Statistics Botswana report for April confirmed a rate of 4.2%. The June figures are currently within the Bank of Botswana's medium-term forecast of 4.1% to 4.3%, remaining comfortably within the central bank's target range.

Primary Drivers of Inflation

The upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during this period was primarily driven by three key sectors:

1. Transport (The Largest Contributor)

Transport remains the heaviest weight in Botswana's CPI basket (23%). In late March 2026, the Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA) implemented a significant hike in retail pump prices for petrol and diesel. This adjustment directly fueled the 4.2% peak seen in April as the "second-round effects" filtered through to public transport fares and logistics costs. 

2. Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages

Food inflation reached a multi-year high early in the year and remained elevated through April and June. Key drivers included:

Imported Inflation: Rising costs of imported tradeables (specifically from South Africa) increased by 6.6%.

Domestic Prices: Higher costs for bread, cereals, and oils due to regional supply chain constraints.

3. Administered Prices & Miscellaneous Services

Alcohol & Tobacco: Significant price increases in this category contributed roughly 0.5 percentage points to the headline figure.

Miscellaneous Services: Insurance and financial service costs saw a 9.4% year-on-year increase by April, maintaining the steady floor for the inflation rate.

Regional Impact

Statistics Botswana noted that inflation was slightly more pronounced in Rural Villages (4.6%) compared to Cities and Towns (4.0%), largely due to the higher cost of transporting goods to more remote areas following the fuel price adjustments.