BSE stocks that will win in 2026

Good morning, let’s get into it!

As we know, Ministry of Finance with Bank of Botswana, are adjusting the monetary policy so this means the Pula will be devaluated again. As much as this is bad news we can’t only look at the bad side, there will be companies in the stock market that will gain from this.

So I decided to make a series out of this, starting with Chobe Holdings Limited

The year 2026 marks a transformative juncture for the Republic of Botswana, as the convergence of a persistent global diamond market slump and critical shifts in monetary policy creates a new paradigm for listed entities on the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE). At the heart of this transition is a sophisticated recalibration of the exchange rate framework, characterized by a 2.76 percent annual downward rate of crawl and the implementation of asymmetric Pula trading margins.¹ This policy is not merely a technical adjustment; it is a strategic intervention designed to safeguard foreign exchange reserves, which reached a historic low of five months of import cover in 2025, and to catalyze a 3.1 percent economic rebound in 2026.³ For companies operating within this environment, the impact is binary: the policy functions as a significant tailwind for exporters and foreign currency earners while presenting a formidable inflationary challenge for those reliant on imported goods and services.

The Strategic Precedence of Chobe Holdings Limited in a Depreciating Environment

Chobe Holdings Limited, as the preeminent ecotourism entity listed on the BSE, serves as the primary case study for the benefits of the 2026 monetary policy framework.⁵ The company’s operational architecture is uniquely optimized to capture the "win" described in the Ministry of Finance’s recent directives. Operating 14 luxury lodges and camps across Northern Botswana and the Zambezi Region in Namibia, Chobe Holdings is a service exporter of the highest caliber, deriving nearly all of its revenue from international tourists who pay in United States Dollars (USD) or Euros.⁵

The benefit for Chobe Holdings is rooted in the fundamental mismatch between its revenue currency and its cost base. While the group’s revenue is generated in hard currency, a substantial portion of its operating expenses—including labor for its extensive workforce, government royalties, lease rentals, and local procurement—is denominated in Botswana Pula.⁵ In the financial year ended February 28, 2025, Chobe posted an 18 percent increase in revenue to P638.76 million, driven by improved yields and a rise in bed nights sold to 68,991.⁵ The 2.76 percent annual downward crawl implemented in 2026 ensures that every dollar of revenue earned by the group translates into more Pula upon domestication, effectively expanding profit margins without requiring a concomitant increase in foreign-denominated prices.¹

The introduction of asymmetric margins provides a secondary, more nuanced benefit for Chobe. Under the new structure, the Bank of Botswana has reduced the rate at which it buys foreign currency from commercial banks (the buy rate) to 3 percent from the central parity, while maintaining the sell rate at 7.5 percent.¹ For a company like Chobe, which frequently converts large tranches of USD proceeds into Pula to fund local operations and a robust dividend policy, this tighter "buy rate" margin allows commercial banks to offer more competitive conversion rates.¹ Previously, symmetric margins of 7.5 percent acted as a hidden tax on exporters, as the wide spread meant fewer Pula were received for every unit of foreign currency.¹ By reducing this friction, the 2026 policy strengthens the incentive for Chobe to domesticate its earnings, thereby supporting the national objective of foreign exchange reserve preservation while simultaneously boosting the company’s Pula-denominated liquidity.¹

The following table illustrates the financial positioning and currency-related assumptions that define Chobe’s operating environment leading into 2026.

Furthermore, Chobe’s recent capital investments—including the P36 million reconstruction of Savute Safari Lodge and the P35 million acquisition of Caravan Ex to support Safari Air—were executed in a higher Pula value environment.⁵ As the Pula depreciates through 2026, the replacement cost of these assets in Pula terms will rise, creating a valuation buffer on the balance sheet. More importantly, the revenue generated by these upgraded properties will be in USD, while the debt servicing (where local) or the ongoing maintenance costs will largely be in a weakening Pula, further enhancing the return on investment for shareholders.⁵

Source:

• Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Framework: Details on the 2.76 percent annual downward rate of crawl and the implementation of asymmetric Pula trading margins (specifically the 3 percent buy rate) are based on official directives from the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Botswana [1, 2, 3].

• Chobe Holdings Limited: Financial performance for FY 2025, bed occupancy rates, and details on capital investments—such as the P36 million reconstruction of Savute Safari Lodge and expansion into Zambia—are from the company's financial highlights and investor reports [4, 5, 6, 7].