Good morning, let’s get into it!
When President Duma Boko and Sheikh Mansour Bin Jabor Bin Jassim Al Thani shook hands in Gaborone last August, they signed an MoU for $12 billion (P162 billion). To put that in perspective, it is double Botswana’s entire 2025/26 national budget and 60 times our typical annual foreign investment.
But as we enter February 2026, the initial "handshake hype" is meeting a cold wall of financial reality. For investors on the BSE and local business owners, the question is no longer if the deal is big, but if it is real.
The Red Flags: Why the Skepticism?
Financial analysts, including those at Rand Merchant Bank (RMB), have taken the extraordinary step of excluding the Al Mansour deal from their economic forecasts for Botswana. Their reasons echo the concerns I had during the Zotus Group saga:
The Due Diligence Gap: Despite the "royal" branding, Al Mansour Holdings lacks a public track record of managing $100 billion-plus infrastructure portfolios. It remains an opaque entity with no audited financial reports.
The Capacity Mismatch: Our local partner, the Botswana Development Corporation (BDC), has assets of roughly $400 million. Asking an entity of that size to oversee a $12 billion injection is like asking a tugboat to dock a skyscraper.
The "MoU" Trap: Critics like Dr. Douglas Rasbash have warned that these MoUs are often "PR tools" rather than binding contracts. Without transparent terms on debt, equity, or what resources (like diamond rights) are being traded, the public remains in the dark.
The Comparison: Zotus Group vs. Al Mansour
We’ve been here before. Remember the Zotus Group and the $50 billion "Kalahari Smart City"? Both projects shared three traits:
Astronomical Numbers: Pledges that dwarf our GDP.
Sudden Arrival: High-level ceremonies with little prior public bidding.
Vague Timelines: Grand promises with "phased approaches" that often result in zero groundbreakings.
What This Means
This isn't just a political story—it’s a market risk.
The Warning: If we base our national economic strategy on "ghost billions," we risk neglecting the real, incremental growth needed in our local sectors. Relying on a Qatari "White Knight" to solve our diamond revenue slump is a dangerous gamble if the due diligence hasn't been done.
The "Due Diligence" Checklist
Before we celebrate this "windfall," we should ask the BDC three things:
Proof of Funds: Has Al Mansour shown an escrow account or a bank guarantee for the first $1 billion?
The Price Tag: What is Botswana giving up? Is this a loan we must repay, or are we selling stakes in our national mines?
The Track Record: Can they show a single city or power plant they have successfully built from scratch in Africa?
Is the $12 billion deal a visionary leap or a repeat of past mirages?
Source: Munya Hoto
