Botswana’s Core Inflation Surges to 4.5%

Good morning! Let’s get into it!

In September 2025, Botswana’s core inflation- the measure of underlying price changes that strips out volatile or regulated items- saw a noticeable uptick, signaling mounting price pressures in the broader economy.

According to Statistics Botswana, the Trimmed Mean Core Inflation rose sharply by 2.6 percentage points, from 1.6% in August to 4.2% in September 2025. This measure filters out extreme price movements to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends.

Similarly, the Core Inflation rate excluding administered prices — which removes items like fuel and utilities whose prices are regulated by government policy — also increased from 3.9% to 4.5% during the same period.

This acceleration in core inflation indicates that the recent rise in consumer prices is not just due to temporary shocks (such as fuel price hikes) but also reflects a broader firming of underlying demand and cost pressures within the economy.

Economists often view core inflation as a better gauge of sustained inflationary trends because it highlights price movements that are more persistent and less likely to fluctuate month-to-month. A continued rise in core inflation could prompt policymakers to reassess monetary policy settings to ensure inflation expectations remain anchored within the Bank of Botswana’s objective range.

While headline inflation climbed to 3.7% in September (up from 1.4% in August), the stronger movement in core inflation suggests that price increases are becoming more widespread across goods and services — not just concentrated in energy or transport.

For households, this means a gradual but more lasting increase in the cost of living, even if temporary factors like fuel price adjustments stabilize in the coming months.

Source: